- Essays··8 min read
The year capex stopped fitting on the balance sheet
Consensus for 2026 hyperscaler capex has roughly doubled in twelve months. That is not a forecast revision — it is a forecast that lost its anchor, financed off the balance sheet and resting on chips nobody can defend as six-year assets.
ai-capexoff-balance-sheet-financinggpu-depreciationhyperscalersRead - Essays··8 min read
The capex is real. The NPV is fiction.
A trillion dollars of compute spend is the most concrete thing in technology right now. The return it is meant to justify is the most fictional. The capex is real; the NPV is a guess dressed as a forecast.
ai-capexnet-present-valuehyperscalerscircular-financingRead - Essays··7 min read
The Money Stack Behind the Model Stack
The AI story most boards are still being told is a productivity story. The one that matters is a balance-sheet story — a seven-hundred-billion-dollar capex programme depreciated on assumptions nobody has fully tested.
ai-capexhyperscaler-economicsdepreciation-accountingprivate-creditRead