- Essays··8 min read
The Kilometre Between the Certificate and the Payroll
Nigeria's 3MTT reports a 99.6% completion rate across 135,000 fellows, a figure measuring whether they finished an assessment, not whether they hold jobs that use the training. The IMF's baseline scenario projects a 0.2% productivity lift for sub-Saharan Africa over the coming decade under current conditions. Until programmes publish cohort-level employment outcomes at six and twelve months, the headline numbers describe ambition, not labour markets.
africa-ailabour-marketsnigeriaskills-policyRead - Essays··8 min read
China's Bank-AI Push Forgot the Middle
China's largest banks are automating the base of their workforce (branch tellers, credit clerks, back-office processors) while importing senior AI PhDs for the apex and eliminating the middle tier entirely. A Hangzhou court ruling in April 2026 drew the first legal line against pure AI substitution; the more serious reckoning arrives when the next credit cycle exposes the judgement gap left by the hollowing. The reskilling pathway that would close it does not yet exist.
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